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4

Stitching Wheel

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 56

Newmarket · William Hill Price Boosts Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Generally struggled for this yard but sprung a surprise at Redcar in June. Backed that up to an extent when second there 3 weeks ago, though it was a bit disappointing how she was readily brushed aside by the veteran winner.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ripon 27/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 72 · 1m4f10y Goo 125 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 72 par27/095OR 724 @ Catterick 28/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 68 · 1m4f13y Sft 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 68 par4 @ Catterick 21/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 147 · HIGHER CLASS21/1146 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 63 · 1m4f13y Goo 133 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 59 · 2m Goo 127 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 59 par25/045OR 596 @ Catterick 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m4f13y Gd 135 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 55 · 2m56y Std 135 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 55 par19/056OR 556 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 52 · 1m5f218y Gd 124 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 56 · 1m7f217y Goo 135 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 56 par19/076OR 56projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Redcar62nd3rd−1
2026-06-20Redcar61st2nd−1
2026-05-19Newcastle66th7th−1
2026-05-11Catterick67th8th−1
2026-04-25Ripon57th7th0
2026-04-08Catterick66th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/098/0419/0519/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20253rd33/10%33%+0.33
28/10/20258th66/10%0%0.00
21/11/20255th150/10%33%+0.33
08/04/20266th33/10%29%+0.29
25/04/20267th80/10%0%0.00
11/05/20267th50/10%54%+0.54
19/05/20266th18/15%17%+0.11
20/06/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
19/07/20262nd7/491%67%-0.24