1
War And Love
4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 60
Redcar · Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 6 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2025-02-04 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-01-11 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 11/01/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 04/02/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 20/06/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |