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6

Here Comes Louie

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 51

Redcar · Celebrate The Life Of Ann Allport Handicap · 7f 219y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Unlucky second of 13 dropped to this trip in a classified stakes at Thirsk and backed that up when second at Southwell on Thursday. Player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Redcar 17/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 7f219y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS17/1045 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 1m13y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS24/1054 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 1m4f14y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS5/0446 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m2f Goo 121 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 45 par15/066OR 456 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 43 · 7f218y Goo 127 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 43 par16/076OR 436 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 51 · 1m14y Std 131 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 51 par6/086OR 51projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-06Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-07-16Thirsk62nd2nd0
2026-06-15Wetherby66th6th0
2026-04-05Southwell48th6th+2
2025-10-24Southwell510th9th+1
2025-10-17Redcar49th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1024/105/0415/0616/076/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20259th66/10%0%0.00
24/10/202510th80/10%31%+0.31
05/04/20268th150/10%13%+0.13
15/06/20266th80/10%44%+0.44
16/07/20262nd20/10%92%+0.92
06/08/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17