7
Amidst The Chaos
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 75
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y
#7
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Redcar | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Musselburgh | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Beverley | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 10/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |