12
Barley
7yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 69
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 26/04/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |