3
Capital Guarantee
6yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 79
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Beverley | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Beverley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 61% | +0.61 |
| 29/03/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 16/05/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 8% | -0.29 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |
| 13/06/2026 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |