13
Chesneys Charm
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 68
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y
#14
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Wetherby | 5 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Ripon | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-09-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Haydock | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 14
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/06/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 09/09/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 30% | -0.28 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 26/04/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |