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2

Frankies Dream

4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 80

Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#8

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 6 times in the first half of last year. Has returned in good nick, placed 4 times before going too freely at York and Ascot (set a lot to do when eighth) on his last 2 runs. Handily weighted and not without interest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Chester 14/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 84 · 7f127y Sft 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 84 par14/062OR 844 @ Haydock 19/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 83 · 6f212y Gd 136 · below its mark19/07/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 133 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 83 par18/044OR 833 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 81 · 7f218y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 81 · 7f96y Goo 131 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 81 par30/054OR 814 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 81 · 1m177y Goo 131 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 81 par3 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 83 · 7f192y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 83 par27/063OR 834 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 83 · 1m2f56y Goo 140 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m GF 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 82 par25/072OR 82projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Ascot28th6th+2
2026-07-10York47th7th0
2026-06-27York33rd2nd+1
2026-06-13York42nd2nd0
2026-05-30Beverley43rd3rd0
2026-05-16Thirsk33rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0616/0527/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20258th9/276%0%-0.76
19/07/20257th10/382%14%-0.68
18/04/202611th33/10%17%+0.17
16/05/20263rd33/10%83%+0.83
30/05/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
13/06/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56
27/06/20263rd5/287%85%-0.02
10/07/20267th5/174%25%-0.49
25/07/20268th18/15%30%+0.25