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6

Harry The Rogue

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 76

Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#13

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fifteen runs since last win in 2025 and only thirteenth of 14 in handicap at Newcastle (1m) 43 days ago. Visor goes on for 1st time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA74 @ Laytown 04/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 74 · 7f Std 162 · below its mark04/09/2025 · OR 74 par4/0974OR 74BHA75 @ Dundalk 26/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 75 · 1m2f150y Std 139 · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 75 parC7 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 78 · 1m2f150y Std 139 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 78 par17/10C7OR 78C8 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 78 · 1m Std 142 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 78 · 1m5y Std 128 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 78 par27/034OR 784 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 80 · 1m2y Goo 140 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 22 · OR 80 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 80 par15/054OR 804 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 79 · 1m2f56y Gd 134 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 78 · 1m5y Sta 140 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 78 par26/064OR 78projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-26Newcastle413th13th0
2026-06-12York410th10th0
2026-05-15York49th9th0
2026-04-26Musselburgh44th4th0
2026-03-27Newcastle42nd2nd0
2026-02-13Dundalk?3rd7th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0913/0215/0526/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength71%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/20253rd17/255%78%+0.23
26/09/20252nd9/153%92%+0.40
17/10/20256th5/287%62%-0.25
13/02/20263rd10/147%82%+0.34
27/03/20262nd25/10%91%+0.91
26/04/20264th13/266%75%+0.09
15/05/20269th18/15%62%+0.57
12/06/202610th33/10%47%+0.47
26/06/202613th17/255%8%-0.48