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10

Illy's Roo

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 78

Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#9

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a second success for Gemma Tutty at York (1m) in July and backed it up with a good fifth of 11 in handicap at Ascot (7f, good to firm) 15 days ago, hampered late on. Can make his presence felt again off the same mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 30/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 73 · 7f36y Std 134 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 73 par30/015OR 734 @ Southwell 11/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 7f14y Std 122 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 76 · 7f15y Std 131 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 76 par28/034OR 762 @ Newbury 17/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 77 · 7f Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 77 · 7f Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 77 par8/052OR 774 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 74 · 7f6y GF 124 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 74 par5/064OR 744 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 72 · 7f192y Goo 127 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 78 · 7f GF 133 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 78 par24/074OR 78projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Ascot45th5th0
2026-07-10York41st1st0
2026-06-05Doncaster47th7th0
2026-05-23York47th7th0
2026-05-08Ascot27th5th+2
2026-04-17Newbury28th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0117/045/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20267th16/116%25%+0.09
11/03/20261st28/10%100%+1.00
28/03/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
17/04/20268th50/10%46%+0.46
08/05/20267th18/15%33%+0.28
23/05/20267th10/147%68%+0.21
05/06/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
10/07/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
24/07/20265th7/282%60%-0.22