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5

Mr Mistoffelees

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 76

Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not easy to win with but comes here in good form, runner-up for second consecutive start in handicap at Newcastle (1m) 14 days ago. In the picture once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 74 · 7f219y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 74 par4/102OR 744 @ Newcastle 17/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 74 · 1m5y Std 131 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 74 par4 @ Southwell 21/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 76 · 1m13y Std 129 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 76 par21/114OR 764 @ Newcastle 05/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 80 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 79 · 1m5y Std 129 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 79 par27/034OR 793 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 78 · 7f219y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 76 · 1m GF 131 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 76 par20/054OR 764 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 74 · 7f213y GF 124 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 76 · 1m5y Sta 133 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 76 par25/074OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Newcastle42nd2nd0
2026-06-05Doncaster42nd2nd0
2026-05-20Ayr45th5th0
2026-05-07Redcar37th6th+1
2026-03-27Newcastle48th8th0
2025-12-05Newcastle46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/105/1220/0525/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20254th18/15%75%+0.70
17/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
21/11/20252nd9/153%89%+0.36
05/12/20256th3/184%44%-0.40
27/03/20268th13/266%36%-0.29
07/05/20267th28/10%25%+0.25
20/05/20265th11/142%60%+0.18
05/06/20262nd11/142%75%+0.33
25/07/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38