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4

Paladin

5yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 79

Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

88%

Place Prob

61%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took this 12 months ago and comes here on the back of a good second of 8 in handicap at Ascot (1m, firm) 29 days ago. A likely player in his bid for a second win of 2026 (scored at Wolverhampton in January).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 08/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m6y Goo 142 · beat its mark08/07/2025 · OR 73 par8/075OR 734 @ Ripon 19/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 73 · 1m Sft 123 · below its mark19/07/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Redcar 09/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 73 · 7f219y GF 134 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 73 par9/084OR 734 @ Redcar 23/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 77 · 7f219y Goo 136 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Southwell 03/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 76 · 1m13y Std 134 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 76 par3/104OR 764 @ Newcastle 17/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Wolverhampton 16/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 77 · 1m142y Std 130 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 77 par16/014OR 774 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 18th of 22 · OR 79 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 79 · 1m GF 135 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 79 par10/074OR 79projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Ascot42nd2nd0
2026-05-23York418th18th0
2026-01-16Wolverhampton41st1st0
2025-10-17Newcastle45th5th0
2025-10-03Southwell42nd2nd0
2025-08-23Redcar47th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0723/0816/0110/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/07/20255th7/282%50%-0.32
19/07/20256th16/583%0%-0.83
09/08/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
23/08/20257th6/168%0%-0.68
03/10/20252nd5/174%92%+0.18
17/10/20255th15/890%43%-0.47
16/01/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
23/05/202618th33/10%19%+0.19
10/07/20262nd10/147%86%+0.38