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14

Vince Le Prince

6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 66

Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y

#11

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twenty three runs since his last win in 2024 but back on track with second of 8 in handicap at Catterick (7f, good to firm) 17 days ago. This course winner can't be discounted in a change of headgear.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 68 · 7f6y Goo 128 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 68 par18/104OR 685 @ Catterick 28/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 67 · 7f6y Sft 137 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 68 · 7f6y Goo 133 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 68 par8/045OR 685 @ Catterick 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 68 · 7f6y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 68 · 7f Goo 133 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 68 par7/055OR 685 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 68 · 6f195y Sft 129 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Catterick 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 67 · 7f6y GS 134 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 67 par11/065OR 675 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 66 · 7f Goo 131 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Catterick 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 7f6y GF 139 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 64 par22/076OR 64projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22Catterick62nd4th−2
2026-07-01Thirsk510th11th−1
2026-06-11Catterick53rd4th−1
2026-05-18Carlisle55th6th−1
2026-05-07Redcar57th8th−1
2026-04-22Catterick52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1022/0411/0622/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/20254th5/174%67%-0.07
28/10/20252nd2/189%90%+0.01
08/04/20262nd11/486%91%+0.05
22/04/20262nd7/491%88%-0.03
07/05/20267th4/179%14%-0.65
18/05/20265th8/158%56%-0.02
11/06/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29
01/07/202610th6/168%0%-0.68
22/07/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03