9
Welbury
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 79
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight Mile Handicap · 7f 219y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Musselburgh | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 56% | -0.33 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |