1
Democracy Dilemma
6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 95
Redcar · Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 20th | 19th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Musselburgh | 2 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Lingfield | 1 | 3rd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength7%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 04/04/2026 | 13th | 9/2 | 76% | 8% | -0.69 |
| 01/05/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 06/06/2026 | 20th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |