3
Fidelius
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 84
Redcar · Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 2 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Goodwood | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Bath | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Chelmsford City | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 13/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 10/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 22/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 26/06/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |