4
Rosenpur
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 81
Redcar · Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Musselburgh | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 03/11/2025 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.13 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 25/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |