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5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77

Redcar · Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

62%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up in lower grade races last 2 starts, bumping into a subsequent winner at Newcastle on the all-weather in June before second of 17 at York 14 days ago. Yet to win on turf but could take a hand in current heart.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 14/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 4f214y Std 129 · beat its mark14/03/2026 · OR 79 par14/034OR 794 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 83 · 5f Std 133 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 123 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 82 par15/043OR 823 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 81 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 81 par2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 79 · 5f Gd 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 79 par14/052OR 792 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR 76 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 76 par13/064OR 765 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 75 · 5f Sta 135 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 75 · 5f Goo 161 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 75 par25/074OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25York42nd3rd−1
2026-06-26Newcastle52nd4th−2
2026-06-13York48th9th−1
2026-05-23York29th8th+1
2026-05-14York26th5th+1
2026-05-02Thirsk38th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/032/0513/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/03/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
27/03/20265th9/276%64%-0.13
15/04/20264th28/10%67%+0.67
02/05/20268th15/261%22%-0.38
14/05/20266th11/142%75%+0.33
23/05/20269th20/10%47%+0.47
13/06/20268th25/10%65%+0.65
26/06/20262nd15/890%91%+0.01
25/07/20262nd9/276%94%+0.17