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2

Spring Is Sprung

7yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 84

Redcar · Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Second at York in July after third of 9 over C&D in June and easily excused latest effort when poorly drawn in a higher grade at Goodwood. Should prove more at home here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 23/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 84 · 4f214y Std 137 · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 84 par23/094OR 843 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 4f214y Std 126 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 87 · 4f214y Std 127 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 87 par4/033OR 874 @ Southwell 09/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 87 · 4f214y Std 137 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 86 · 5f7y Gd 134 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 86 par17/053OR 864 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 85 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 5f Gd 125 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 85 par20/063OR 854 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 139 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 23 · OR 85 · 5f Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 85 par28/072OR 85projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Goodwood216th15th+1
2026-07-10York42nd3rd−1
2026-06-20Redcar33rd3rd0
2026-05-31Thirsk44th5th−1
2026-05-17Hamilton37th7th0
2026-04-09Southwell44th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/099/0420/0628/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20258th7/163%13%-0.51
13/01/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
04/03/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
09/04/20264th15/890%40%-0.50
17/05/20267th18/15%50%+0.45
31/05/20264th20/10%81%+0.81
20/06/20263rd16/116%75%+0.59
10/07/20262nd8/158%91%+0.33
28/07/202616th50/10%32%+0.32