2
Bust A Moon
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 47
Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Classified Stakes · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Beverley | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Carlisle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 22/07/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 01/08/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 85% | +0.79 |
| 09/09/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 19/09/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 23/09/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 01/06/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |