7
Ellie's De Vega
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 50
Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Classified Stakes · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hamilton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |