8
Gwen Tennyson
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 49
Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Classified Stakes · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Catterick | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 8% | -0.29 |
| 28/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/07/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |