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6

Billy Bathgate

10yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 57

Redcar · Remembering Christine And Colin Brown Handicap · 1m 5f 218y

#1

Rank

Odds

1/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

97%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a deserved first win of 2026 in 4-runner handicap here (2m, good to firm) 20 days ago. Can go well again despite a 4 lb weights rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 27/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 1m5f219y Std 132 · beat its mark27/01/2026 · OR 57 par27/016OR 575 @ Wolverhampton 03/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 56 · 1m5f219y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/02/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Southwell 11/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 57 · 1m6f21y Std 133 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 57 par11/026OR 575 @ Newcastle 15/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 56 · 2m56y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 55 · 2m120y Std 133 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 55 par2/036OR 556 @ Newcastle 11/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 55 · 2m56y Std 135 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m5f219y Std 130 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 55 par31/036OR 555 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f98y Sta 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 53 · 1m7f217y Goo 132 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 53 par19/076OR 53projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Redcar61st1st0
2026-06-27Newcastle56th5th+1
2026-03-31Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-03-11Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-03-02Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-02-15Newcastle53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0115/0231/0319/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/01/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
03/02/20264th9/153%63%+0.10
11/02/20264th9/153%25%-0.28
15/02/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
02/03/20264th7/491%50%-0.41
11/03/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
31/03/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
27/06/20266th28/10%55%+0.55
19/07/20261st1/195%100%+0.05