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Buxted Reel

7yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 65

Redcar · Remembering Christine And Colin Brown Handicap · 1m 5f 218y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored at Chelmsford (14f) in October and arrives in good nick from a spell hurdling, third of 10 at Uttoxeter last time. In the mix.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength72%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Market Rasen 02/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 93 · 2m125y Gd 162 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/06/2025 · OR 93 par2/065OR 935 @ Worcester 25/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 92 · 2m Goo 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/06/2025 · OR 92 par6 @ Doncaster 10/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 63 · 1m6f115y Goo 155 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 63 par10/076OR 635 @ Bangor-on-Dee 05/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 92 · 2m3f123y Goo 161 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 92 par6 @ Southwell 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 63 · 1m6f21y Std 142 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 63 par27/096OR 636 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 63 · 1m6f Std 141 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 63 par5 @ Warwick 20/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 91 · 2m Gd 165 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 91 par20/055OR 915 @ Stratford 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 90 · 2m70y Goo 166 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 90 par5 @ Uttoxeter 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 90 · 1m7f168y Gd 160 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 90 par7/075OR 90projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-07Uttoxeter53rd2nd+1
2026-06-16Stratford52nd1st+1
2026-05-20Warwick58th7th+1
2025-10-09Chelmsford City61st1st0
2025-09-27Southwell62nd2nd0
2025-09-05Bangor-on-Dee56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/065/0920/057/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20254th15/261%57%-0.03
25/06/20253rd9/488%60%-0.28
10/07/20253rd4/179%71%-0.08
05/09/20256th9/276%44%-0.32
27/09/20252nd9/276%75%-0.01
09/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
20/05/20268th6/168%0%-0.68
16/06/20262nd4/179%91%+0.12
07/07/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01