Gemical
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 52
Redcar · Remembering Christine And Colin Brown Handicap · 1m 5f 218y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Nottingham | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-08-01 | Galway | ? | 12th | 14th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/08/2025 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 300/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 70% | +0.65 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 11/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |