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2

Newport

6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 63

Redcar · Remembering Christine And Colin Brown Handicap · 1m 5f 218y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In winning form over hurdles in June and back in this sphere with a very good fourth of 13 in handicap at York (2m, good) 15 days ago. Player off an unchanged mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength77%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Sedgefield 10/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 95 · 2m178y Goo 161 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/03/2026 · OR 95 par10/035OR 955 @ Newcastle 31/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 94 · 2m190y Goo 162 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 94 par5 @ Kelso 20/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 94 · 2m2f25y Goo 160 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 94 par20/045OR 945 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m3f15y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Kelso 24/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 94 · 2m4f189y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 94 par24/055OR 945 @ Hexham 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 94 · 2m48y Gd 157 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 94 par5 @ Hexham 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 98 · 2m48y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 98 par21/065OR 985 @ Stratford 30/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 98 · 2m2f148y Goo 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 98 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 63 · 2m56y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 63 par24/074OR 63projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24York44th2nd+2
2026-06-30Stratford54th3rd+1
2026-06-21Hexham51st0th+1
2026-06-13Hexham52nd1st+1
2026-05-24Kelso511th10th+1
2026-05-03Hamilton55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/033/0521/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength58%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/03/20263rd17/255%75%+0.20
31/03/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55
20/04/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
03/05/20265th10/382%43%-0.40
24/05/202611th9/276%9%-0.67
13/06/20262nd18/15%89%+0.84
21/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
30/06/20264th10/382%67%-0.16
24/07/20264th9/153%75%+0.22