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French Affair

3yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 79

Redcar · Watch Race Replays On Racing TV Handicap · 5f 217y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a deserved success (formerly with Richard Hannon) for new yard in 26-runner handicap at Goodwood (6f, good to firm) 10 days ago, doing well to overcome troubled passage. Has to be taken seriously despite 4 lb rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Salisbury 12/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 6f213y Sft 135 · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 75 par12/095OR 754 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Kempton 18/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 75 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark18/03/2026 · OR 75 par18/035OR 754 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 77 · 7f14y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 76 par9/054OR 764 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 76 · 7f6y GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 76 par5/064OR 764 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 76 · 7f6y GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 26 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 75 par29/074OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Goodwood41st0th+1
2026-06-20Doncaster46th5th+1
2026-06-05Doncaster44th3rd+1
2026-05-23York42nd1st+1
2026-05-09Lingfield44th3rd+1
2026-04-05Southwell45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/095/045/0629/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20252nd9/276%80%+0.04
19/09/20254th7/282%67%-0.15
18/03/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00
05/04/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
09/05/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
23/05/20262nd25/10%95%+0.95
05/06/20264th10/147%67%+0.19
20/06/20266th5/287%58%-0.29
29/07/20261st14/126%100%+0.74