Space Bear
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 75
Redcar · Watch Race Replays On Racing TV Handicap · 5f 217y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 3 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Yarmouth | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 24/07/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |