6
Capitol Hill
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 109
Saratoga · Race 10 - Fourstardave Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-11-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-09-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 16th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 02/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 06/09/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 23% | -0.14 |
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |