IvyArcIvyArc
5

Deterministic

5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 118

Saratoga · Race 10 - Fourstardave Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Colonial Downs 07/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 103 · 1m1f Fm 123 · beat its mark07/09/2024 · OR 103 par7/09C1OR 103C1 @ Belmont At The Big A 05/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 105 · 1m3f Fm 122 · beat its mark05/10/2024 · OR 105 parC1 @ Aqueduct 09/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 105 · 1m1f Fm 124 · beat its mark09/11/2024 · OR 105 par9/11C1OR 105C5 @ Keeneland 06/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 106 · 1m1f 123 · below its mark06/04/2025 · OR 106 parC0 @ Belmont At The Big A 03/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 106 · 1m1f Fm 124 · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 106 par3/05C?OR 106C0 @ Saratoga 08/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 109 · 1m1f110y Gd 122 · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 109 parC0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 111 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 111 par2/08C?OR 111C1 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 117 · 1m1f Fm 124 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 117 parC0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 119 · 1m1f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 119 par6/06C?OR 119projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-06Saratoga?1st1st0
2026-05-02Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−0
2025-08-02Saratoga?1st1st0
2025-06-08Saratoga?1st1st0
2025-05-03Belmont At The Big A?1st1st−0
2025-04-06Keeneland?2nd8th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/096/042/086/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20241st11/1094%100%+0.06
05/10/20242nd9/488%80%-0.08
09/11/20241st9/488%100%+0.12
06/04/20252nd5/287%80%-0.07
03/05/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
08/06/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
02/08/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
02/05/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
06/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24