7
Lagynos
5yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 118
Saratoga · Race 10 - Fourstardave Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 92% | +0.00 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |