2
Mi Bago
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 110
Saratoga · Race 10 - Fourstardave Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 13th | −4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 25% | -0.70 |
| 01/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 06/09/2025 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 9% | -0.65 |
| 24/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 08/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |