9
Bottas
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 104
Saratoga · Race 11 - Saratoga Derby S. Presented By Qatar Racing - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 01/11/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |