6
Glacius
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 109
Saratoga · Race 11 - Saratoga Derby S. Presented By Qatar Racing - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Newmarket | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Haydock | 1 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |