1
Glavine
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 102
Saratoga · Race 11 - Saratoga Derby S. Presented By Qatar Racing - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲4
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |