2
Heeere's Johnny
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 95
Saratoga · Race 11 - Saratoga Derby S. Presented By Qatar Racing - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 12th | −6 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 28/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |