5
Pacific Avenue
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 111
Saratoga · Race 11 - Saratoga Derby S. Presented By Qatar Racing - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Meydan | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Newmarket | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Newmarket | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |