3
Remember Mamba
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 109
Saratoga · Race 11 - Saratoga Derby S. Presented By Qatar Racing - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 1.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength82%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 78% | -0.13 |