7
The Big Con
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 89
Saratoga · Race 11 - Saratoga Derby S. Presented By Qatar Racing - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |