4
Title Role
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 113
Saratoga · Race 11 - Saratoga Derby S. Presented By Qatar Racing - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
95%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 1 | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Meydan | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Meydan | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Meydan | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-10-08 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 94% | +0.13 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 85% | +0.16 |
| 30/01/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |