10
West End Kid
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 109
Saratoga · Race 11 - Saratoga Derby S. Presented By Qatar Racing - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-02-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 11th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |