3
Antiquarian
5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 110
Saratoga · Race 12 - Whitney Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 31/05/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 01/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 70% | -0.23 |