4
Forged Steel
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 103
Saratoga · Race 12 - Whitney Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-01-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 14th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 19/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 17/01/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 30% | -0.57 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |