1
Magnitude
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 113
Saratoga · Race 12 - Whitney Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-02-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2024 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/12/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 18/01/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 58% | -0.02 |
| 16/02/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |