2
Nitrogen
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 120
Saratoga · Race 12 - Whitney Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
79%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 83% | -0.15 |
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 1/4 | 99% | 67% | -0.32 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 88% | -0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |