6
Sovereignty
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 114
Saratoga · Race 12 - Whitney Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/6
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2024 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/03/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 03/05/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 07/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |