7
Tiztastic
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 106
Saratoga · Race 12 - Whitney Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 14th | −5 |
| 2025-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Churchill Downs | BHA105 | −10 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 23/02/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 22/03/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 03/05/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 02/08/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/08/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 16/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |