5
White Abarrio
7yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 112
Saratoga · Race 12 - Whitney Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength60%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 89% | -0.09 |
| 25/01/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/03/2025 | 1st | 1/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 07/06/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |