Beach Heist
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 102
Saratoga · Race 13 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 2.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |