1
Romantic Dancer
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 91
Saratoga · Race 13 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/11/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 15/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 4/6 | 96% | 25% | -0.71 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |